Prediction Markets Went Mainstream

Prediction markets had their mainstream moment. Election coverage cited market odds alongside polls. Financial media referenced prediction prices as signals. The breakout finally happened.

The accuracy during major events impressed skeptics. Markets called outcomes that polls missed. The wisdom of crowds with skin in the game outperformed expert forecasts.

Liquidity deepened dramatically. Meaningful sizes trade on major markets now. The prices actually reflect aggregated information, not just a few whales. Market efficiency improved.

The regulatory clarity in some jurisdictions helped. Prediction markets operating legally, serving institutional clients. The legitimacy attracts serious capital.

New market types emerged. Not just elections and sports but business outcomes, technology milestones, climate events. The design space expanded.

Prediction markets work well as information sources. What's the market probability of X? More reliable than asking pundits. The incentives align for accuracy.

The oracle problem remains for resolution. Who decides if an event happened? Disputes still get messy. But the core mechanism works better than alternatives.